State Panel Reconsiders Financial Impact of Amendment 4

Yesterday, the Financial Impact Estimating Conference (FIEC) issued a revised Financial Impact Statement for Amendment 4. In Florida, each ballot initiative must include a Financial Impact Statement on the ballot that estimates the increase or decrease in any revenue or costs to state or local governments and the overall impact to the state budget of the proposed amendment.

In June, a Florida trial court ordered the FIEC to redraft its original Financial Impact Statement which was issued in November of last year. The court determined that the statement might mislead voters since the Supreme Court has now ruled that the 15-week abortion ban is constitutional, which resulted in the 6-week abortion ban going into effect May 1.

At the first of three FIEC meetings on July 1, 2024, FCCB associates Tammy Fecci and Michael Barrett spoke briefly and submitted a memorandum to the FIEC with some considerations for their deliberation:
1. The passage of Amendment 4 could potentially result in significant litigation costs to the state because abortion advocates will likely challenge almost every Florida law that touches abortion.
2. One of the laws that will likely be challenged if Amendment 4 passes is Florida’s restriction on Medicaid coverage for abortion. If this law is struck down, it could lead to increased state spending on Medicaid.
3. Florida’s birth rate is below replacement level and this demographic trend, if it continues, will likely have negative long-term economic impacts for the state. Passage of Amendment 4 could exacerbate these trends further or hinder efforts to reverse them.
The new Financial Impact Statement reflects the changes in abortion law and also reflects the complex realities of determining the financial impact of a human life on the state budget. Sadly, if Amendment 4 passes, there will be fewer Floridians in the future than there would have been absent the unfettered access to abortion created by Amendment 4. The FIEC determined that, due to the complexity of this analysis, the financial impact of increased abortions cannot be estimated with precision and that the total financial impact of the proposed amendment is indeterminate. 

There remains a possibility that proponents of the amendment will challenge the revised statement before ballots are printed.